Thirty days to go. Nick Clegg found his way to Romiley, thankfully this time in the right constituency. Is there some significance in a second visit from the Lib Dem’s leader in 4 days for the vulnerability of this seat? He was also pictured pulling the landlady of the Railway, or at least an eponymous real ale of the good lady.
William Wragg (Con) and Michael Taylor (Lab) spent some of the day maintaining their digital profiles with a number of tweets. The Tweet of the day though went to Darran Palmer (UKIP) who retweeted some statistics that showed UKIP ahead of Lib dems and Tories in Hazel Grove.
This came apparently from Yougov, which despite its official sounding name is actually some marketing agency. Some very creative use of a graph here as the website of Yougov produces a NOWCAST on each uk constituency which show highs and lows of each candidate. So Lib Dems are between 27 and 40% , Conservatives between 22 and 33% and UKIP 13 and 24%. Furthermore they are based on a sample from subscribers to Yougov who are often completing surveys in return for the opportunity to enter a raffle. Think cyber zero hours contract.
I actually joined Yougov today to learn more and only have to complete another 344 surveys to win a soft toy. I was rewarded however by an explanation of how their political NOWCAST forecasts work though. See if you can follow this explanation:
How is the Nowcast calculated?
Our Nowcast is based on a sophisticated statistical model that combines the respondents we have in each seat with modelled observations from similar types of people across the country. In maths-speak, it is a hierarchichal Bayesian model using multilevel regression post-stratification.
OK , it’s not my fault if you don’t have a mathematics double first!
Also today, Tony Blair came back from his Transylvanian castle or wherever to endorse David Miliband’s campaign by casting aspersions on the Conservative pledge for an EU referendum. Not sure how wise that move was. TB is now better known as a Toxic Brand or a respiratory disease.
Finally Natalie Brainfade from Woolliebackagreen, New South Wales was eaten alive by John Humphrys on the Today programme. He even managed to get her name wrong. See full story here in the Telegraph.