2017 Election Hazel Grove Constituency Prediction

In 2015 I accurately forecast the result of the Hazel Grove seat in the General election. At the time I went in to some detail about how I thought the election campaigns had gone and what the likely factors were.

The final results were:





 Conservative  William Wragg  17,882  41.8
Liberal Democrat   Lisa Smart  11,330  26.2
 Labour  Michael Taylor  7,584  17.5
 UKIP  Darran Palmer  5,283  12.2
 Green  Graham Reid  1,140  2.6

There was a turnout of 42,759 voters, a percentage of 68.5% of the electorate which was an increase of 1.9% on the 2010 election turnout.

This time I expect the result to be as follows:

Conservative – Wragg 20,500 votes

Liberal Democrat – Smart 13,500 votes

Labour – Mishra 6,500 votes

Green – Lee 1,500 votes

The UKIP vote last tiem of around 5000 votes has to go somewhere and is likely to go to the Conservatives more than anyone else. The Lib Dems will consolidate but are generally seen as a declining force nationally. Labour will decrease slightly as people vote tactically to try to defeat the Tories here , the young will blindly vote for Corbyn but the older Labour voters will reject him.  The turnout will be slightly down.

Nationally the Conservatives will increase their seats to about 355 to 360, Labour will decline as will the SNP slightly and I expect the Lib Dems to be around 10.

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